Will This Trade Win?

 

Let’s try and improve your thought process at the time of trade identification and entry.

Will this trade win?

Let’s start by looking at the higher timeframe structure.

And now the trade entry on our Trading Timeframe chart.

Will this trade win?

 

This is the wrong question!

A better question is, “Is this a good reward:risk opportunity?”

Structurally, a Breakout Pullback LONG at the prior day’s high is in a great trade location. With a low risk entry and multiple-R potential, this is a trade we MUST take. It doesn’t matter if this particular trade wins or not. Your edge exists over a SERIES of trade. Some will lose. Some will win. The winners should overcome the losers.

So at the time of entry, do NOT concern yourself with worrying thoughts such as “will this trade win?”

Instead ask yourself, “Is this a good reward:risk opportunity?”

If it is… you are right to be in the trade.

Now is the time to manage the risk and opportunity.

And let your edge do its job over a series of trades.

Again…

Will this trade win?

Will this trade win?

That is the wrong question!

A better question is, “Is this a good reward:risk opportunity?”

Again, structurally, we are trading in a good location. The market has fallen back below the prior day’s high and retested the level from below setting up a Breakout Failure SHORT.

With a low risk entry and multiple-R potential, this is a trade we MUST take. It doesn’t matter if this particular trade wins or not. Your edge exists over a SERIES of trade. Some will lose. Some will win. The winners should overcome the losers.

So at the time of entry, do NOT concern yourself with worrying thoughts such as “will this trade win?”

Instead ask yourself, “Is this a good reward:risk opportunity?”

If it is… you are right to be in the trade.

Now is the time to manage the risk and opportunity.

And let your edge do its job over a series of trades.

Will any particular trade win? You cannot know!

But we don’t seek winners. We seek good reward:risk opportunities and manage whatever follows.

Happy trading,

Lance Beggs